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The movie follows an ambitious carny with a talent for manipulating people with a few well-chosen words. Tracking stands at $5M-$6M stateside off critical reviews on Rotten Tomatoes that are 86% fresh. Searchlight has Guillermo del Toro’s spooky noir Nightmare Alley,which is going wide in 2,120 theaters. Rooney Mara and Bradley Cooper in “ Nightmare Alley” Kerry Hayes/20th Century Studios That latter sequel ultimately became the highest grossing Sony movie ever with $1.13 billion. Spider-Man: Far From Home ranks second with $295.8M. Note that the biggest global opening for Sony is Spider-Man 3 with $381.66M. China’s Detective Chinatown 3 remains the pandemic’s biggest weekend opening ever at $400.4M. Still, the advance optics here are way too good.
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It’s recent figures like that, plus the whole Omicron of it all, that has Sony assessing No Way Home with a grain of salt. That’s a big jump from what we’ve seen so far in the Covid era: Universal’s F9 touted a $163M global opening, while Disney/MCU’s Eternals posted $161.7M.
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‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ Columbia Pictures/Everett CollectionĪt the lowest point worldwide, Spider-Man: No Way Home is looking at a $290M start, and if things go gonzo and there’s a flood of walk-up business, the Holland-Zendaya movie would then see $380M WW. China was the lead market on Far From Home at nearly $200M, followed by Korea, the UK, Mexico and Japan. Adding most of the world the following weekend, it rose to a $395M international box office debut. The previous Sony/Disney MCU installment, 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home, is a tough comp since it bowed early in China, Japan and Hong Kong during the summer, swinging in with a $111M opening frame from just those three markets (unadjusted). No Way Home does not yet have a China date, and is unlikely to slot in before the end of 2021.Ĭould No Way Home possibly become the first movie during the pandemic to ultimately cross $1 billion and without China? That’s what’s on many distribution heads’ minds right now. Joining the opening suite through Friday are Germany, Brazil, the Netherlands, India and Spain, among others. This week’s No Way Home rollout starts Wednesday, notably in Korea, the UK, France, Russia, Mexico and Italy. Overseas projections are between $160M-$180M these numbers come with Covid codicils, for sure. Before its weekend opening, Endgame had logged $120M, which puts No Way Home in the $78M range currently. Deadline hears from industry sources that advance tickets sales at this point in time for No Way Home are running 20% ahead of Rise of Skywalker and 35% behind Avengers: Endgame, the latter yielding the biggest domestic opening of all time with $357.1M. Why are rivals’ projections so high for No Way Home? Because presales for the latest Jon Watts MCU title are at record levels. To date, Sony’s biggest domestic opening belongs to 2007’s Spider-Man 3, which made $151.1M during the first weekend of May. But seriously, anything emulating or besting the $90M pandemic opening record of the Culver City lot’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage is pretty damn good.
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Sony in recent years has never been a studio to get over their skis in box office projections better to under-promise and over-deliver. 2 Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220M) back in 2017, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker ($177.3M) in 2019, and Star Wars: Rogue One ($155M) in 2016. Rivals and tracking see the opening much higher in the $175M+ range, possibly even $200M, though everyone is high because No Way Home is the biggest movie they’ve seen on tracking for quite some time - reminiscent numerically to big December openers like the month’s No. with all the strength of Imax and PLF screens. 2007’s ‘Spider-Man 3’ owns Sony’s biggest openings at the domestic box office with $151.1M and worldwide with $381.66M SonyĪs far as its U.S.-Canada prospects go, Sony is seeing at least $130 million at 4,325 locations, and Thursday previews starting very early at 3 p.m. Note that with any movie destined to gross north of $100M+ on tracking, there’s a great standard of deviation given the small sampling of box office numbers.
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There’s arguably more action in No Way Home than Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, and it’s certainly easier to follow and has more heart than the Byzantine-plotted Eternals. 'Spider-Man: No Way Home' Review: The Most Exciting, Surprising And Emotional Spidey Of Them Allįans are expecting a smart sequel that raises the stakes in a way no other Spider-Man has - and they’re happily going to get what they’ve been asking for.